Why the States Wrestle Over Primary and Caucus Dates
By Chuck Hyde, Editor of StandBesideHer.com
There has been quite a bit of news coverage lately about states changing their dates for the presidential primaries and caucuses next year. The reason for this is the importance of these events in determining who is the next president and who gets to have a say in this process.
The current process calls for Iowa and New Hampshire to be scheduled first. What has happened in recent years is that after these two dates there are front runners for the nominations and it makes it harder for the other candidates in the party to catch up. The front runner coming out of these two dates can appear to be the more “electable” candidate, giving them a significant edge in both fund raising and voter perception. Typically you will even see some candidates drop out after these two dates. This in turn gives these two states a disproportionate role in choosing the president of the US.
After this you have “super Tuesday” in which seven states hold their primaries or caucuses. The reality is that if a candidate does not have a significant showing after this, they are finished and most, if not all, of the remaining candidates drop out.
Primaries do not get the respect deserved for their important role in determining who is president. With essentially a two party system in the US, after the primaries we are left with only two choices in the general election. With front loading the primary process like this, a very small percentage of voters in the US effectively determine who the next president is.
There are 538 electoral votes in the US. These are the actual votes for president and represent the population through a formula in which one electoral vote is assigned for each Senator and one for each Congressional member. Therefore if a state has a small population, such as New Hampshire, they get fewer electoral votes. Whereas a state with a large population, such as California, gets more. New Hampshire (4) gets two for their Senators and two for their Representatives. California (55) gets two for their Senators and 53 for their Representatives.
Therefore after the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucus only 11 of out 538 electoral votes have voted yet we have front runners in the election. After super Tuesday at most only 58 of the 538 electoral votes (the Republican Party does not hold primaries in Delaware, New Mexico, and South Carolina on super Tuesday), or only about 10% of the US population, have voted and we have essentially selected the Republican and Democratic nominees.
This means that roughly 90% of the US population is only left with the choice of one candidate in each of the two major parties. This is why states are jockeying for position and trying to move their primaries up. There has been other plans floated, rotating dates between states, having regional groups vote on the same day (maybe with these regions rotating from election to election), or even having a primary date in which all states hold their primaries or caucuses on the same day.
One final note on primaries and caucuses. With their significant importance in deciding who the next president will be, we still only have approximately 10 percent of the population that actually goes out and votes in them. This is a sad commentary. If you vote in the primary you have a say in who gets the nomination. If you don’t vote in the primary, you are stuck with whatever candidate the 10 percent who voted wanted, whether it is the candidate you support or not. So go out and vote, you at least earn the right to complain later about who is ultimately voted in.
About The Author: Chuck Hyde is editor of StandBesideHer.com. He is also a husband and father of two teenage boys and a younger daughter. His family lives in the northern Midwestern rural United States, where they enjoy camping, fishing, and other outdoor activities together. Chuck is a Registered Nurse in an inner city emergency room and has had a lifelong addiction to politics.
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